The final quarter of the year 2021 – lets check some charts
The final quarter of the year is upon us. That’s why I checked some charts.
We usually look for positions on lower timeframes, but it is good to know what the bigger picture is and what the potential S/R levels are.
The 2020 yearly S1 worked well as support, then we had a quick move up to the R2 and R3 levels.
However, in 2021 EUR/USD failed to move above M line. Additionally, earlier Pivot level worked as support. Now, in September EUR/USD closed below that yearly pivot level:
If this trend continues we may see M (at 1.1426) or S1 levels this year.
Pound failed to reach yearly R1 level, resistance area. Top from 2018 was a strong restiance:
This is also a good example of how we consider other techniques when we work with Pivot levels.
The strong sell-off in September started at the yearly M-level:
Here in the coming months I will be watching mainly the monthly Pivot Levels (SP500 likes to react with them):
Gold is moving around the yearly Pivot level, with no clear direction. Some are looking for different patterns here, but this is a separate topic. For now we are waiting if the support near 1700 will hold and there will be a bounce or sell-off:
Silver is reacting well with yearly pivot levels. In 2020 we saw a move from yearly S2 all the way to R3. However, in 2021 silver failed to move higher. The yearly pivot level was also broken in September.
If move down will continue then potentially the M level near $19 could be strong support.
DXY – DOLLAR INDEX
It is also worth checking what is happening on the Dollar index. Yes, 60% of this index is EUR/USD, but it is still worth to have a look.
You can check the Dollar index on TradingView by searching for an instrument called DXY:
We can see that the dollar has been strengthening in recent months. In September, mainly due to FED comments about possible rate hikes, DXY rose to annual Pivot level.